World Cup 2026: Odds, Predictions, and Market Analysis

Every live World Cup market on Kalshi and Polymarket, with Over / Under’s independent AI read on each line. Refreshed through the tournament.

Over / Under is independent of both exchanges. It does not custody funds or operate a market; it reads each contract’s resolution rules, the live price, and the public evidence, then publishes its call. The tournament facts worth knowing: 12 groups of four, with group winners, runners-up, and the eight best third-place teams advancing to a 32-team knockout. The USA plays in Group D (Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye), opening June 12 vs Paraguay at SoFi Stadium. Canada plays in Group B (Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia and Herzegovina), opening June 12 in Toronto. The new bracket has two pathways built so the two highest-ranked group winners cannot meet before the final.

Who wins the 2026 World Cup

The outright winner market is the deepest World Cup contract on each platform, with all 48 nations priced. OU’s analysis covers the favorites and the structure of the bracket each contender would have to survive.

Group winners, A through L

Twelve groups, each with a winner market and a qualification market (which two teams advance directly). Group winners draw the friendlier side of the knockout bracket, so these prices move with every match.

Upcoming match markets

Each fixture gets its own market (win, lose, draw priced from the YES side). New match markets open through the tournament and this list refreshes with them; finished fixtures drop off automatically.

Who advances: knockout and futures markets

Beyond match results: which nations reach the Round of 16, the quarterfinals, the semifinals, and the final, plus stage-of-elimination markets for the hosts.

More World Cup markets

Golden Boot and player awards, squad selections, top-scorer nations, and the stranger props. The highest-volume 24 of 200 live markets are listed here; the full set is searchable in the app.

How Over / Under covers the World Cup

Over / Under aggregates live contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket into a single feed and applies AI-generated analysis to each one: the resolution rules, the current price, the evidence, and a verdict on whether the line looks underpriced, overpriced, or fairly priced. During the tournament that means a read on every match market within hours of it opening.

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Frequently asked

When does the 2026 World Cup start?

June 11, 2026, with Mexico vs South Africa at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. The tournament runs 39 days, ending with the final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

How many teams are playing?

48 teams, 104 matches, 12 groups of four. Host cities span the United States (11), Mexico (3), and Canada (2).

Who do the USA and Canada play?

The USA is in Group D with Paraguay, Australia, and Türkiye, opening June 12 vs Paraguay at SoFi Stadium. Canada is in Group B with Switzerland, Qatar, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, opening June 12 vs Bosnia in Toronto. Mexico opens the tournament June 11 in Group A alongside South Africa, South Korea, and Czechia.

Where can I trade these markets?

Kalshi is open in most US states; Polymarket US is in invite-only beta. Each market page on this site links to the contract on its exchange. For the differences between the two platforms, see the comparison linked above.

Is this betting advice?

No. OU’s read on each market is an independent, AI-generated assessment of the current price against the evidence, published for information. What you do with it is up to you, and prediction markets carry real risk.