5kt meteor strike in 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES30¢ (30%)
NO70¢ (70%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $305.7K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · General
OU's Pick
YES at 30¢ · pays 3.4×
Price gap
Polymarket30¢
→OU's fair32¢
+2¢ underpriced · pays 3.4×
Confidence
Low
Historical NASA bolide data shows that events exceeding five kilotons of TNT equivalent are rare occurrences that typically happen less than once per year on average.
Off market consensus
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