Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?
Price history — Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES19¢ (19%)
NO81¢ (81%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 84.9K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2030-01-01
Kalshi · Economics
OU's Pick
YES at 19¢ · pays 5.3×
Price gap
Kalshi19¢
→OU's fair25¢
+6¢ underpriced · pays 5.3×
Confidence
Moderate
Recent FRED data shows steady US GDP growth while structural headwinds and demographic shifts in China make surpassing the US economy by 2030 increasingly unlikely.
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.