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2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

Price history — Democratic by 211 or more

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

4¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Sat 5/23Sun 5/24Mon 5/25TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Democratic by 31 to 6010¢
Democratic by 91 to 13010¢
Democratic by 61 to 9010¢
Democratic by 11 to 308¢
Republican by 61 to 907¢
Republican by 91 to 1307¢
Democratic by 1 to 105¢
Republican by 31 to 605¢
Republican by 211 or more4¢
Democratic by 211 or more★ BEST4¢
Democratic by 131 to 2103¢
Republican by 1 to 102¢
Republican by 131 to 2101¢
Republican by 11 to 301¢
Kalshi • Volume: 3.3K contracts • Updated 37m agoCloses: 2029-05-06
Kalshi · Politics
OU's Pick
YES · Democratic by 211 or more
at 4¢
Price gap
Kalshi4¢
→
OU's fair4¢
Confidence
Low

A victory margin of over 211 electoral votes is historically rare in the modern era and requires a landslide sweep that current political polarization makes highly unlikely.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.