Will the option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada pass?
Price history — Will the option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada pass?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES20¢ (20%)
NO80¢ (80%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 9.5K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-10-19
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES at 20¢ · pays 5.0×
Price gap
Kalshi20¢
→OU's fair35¢
+15¢ underpriced · pays 5.0×
Confidence
Moderate
Historical polling and the high legal threshold for constitutional change in Canada suggest a significant majority of Albertans typically favor remaining within the federation.
Wide edge+15¢
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.