Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
Price history — Before Jan 1, 2028
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
77¢
30¢
Kalshi • Volume: 10.7K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2028-01-01
Kalshi · Politics
OU's Pick
YES · Before Jan 1, 2028
at 77¢
Price gap
Kalshi77¢
→OU's fair57¢
−20¢ overpriced · pays 1.3×
Confidence
Moderate
The Papua New Guinea government and Bougainville authorities have established a roadmap targeting independence between 2025 and 2027 but ratification remains politically complex.
Wide edge+20¢
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.