OVER / UNDER
KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★ KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★ KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★ KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★ KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★ KXBRPRES1MOV-BRPRES26 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Price history — Lula da Silva, 0-5%

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

43¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Mon 6/1Tue 6/2Wed 6/3TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Lula da Silva, 0-5%★ BEST43¢
Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%15¢
Lula da Silva, 5-10%14¢
Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10%0¢
Lula da Silva, 10-15%0¢
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥15%0¢
Flávio Bolsonaro, 10-15%0¢
Romeu Zema wins0¢
Fernando Haddad wins0¢
Lula da Silva, ≥15%0¢
Renan Santos wins0¢
Kalshi • Volume: 861.2 contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2027-10-04
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Lula da Silva, 0-5%
at 43¢
Price gap
Kalshi43¢
→
OU's fair44¢
+1¢ underpriced · pays 2.3×
Confidence
Low

Lula da Silva remains the frontrunner for the 2026 election while the opposition field is currently fragmented following the ineligibility of Jair Bolsonaro.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.