Brazil presidential election: first round winner?
Price history — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
64¢
22¢
6¢
4¢
3¢
1¢
1¢
Kalshi • Volume: 30.8K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-10-04
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
at 64¢
Price gap
Kalshi64¢
→OU's fair45¢
−19¢ overpriced · pays 1.6×
Confidence
Moderate
Recent polling indicates that incumbent President Lula maintains a lead over potential challengers like Flávio Bolsonaro as the 2026 election cycle begins.
Wide edge+19¢
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.