Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?
Price history — Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES17¢ (17%)
NO83¢ (83%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 1.6K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2029-12-22
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES at 17¢ · pays 5.9×
Price gap
Kalshi17¢
→OU's fair18¢
+1¢ underpriced · pays 5.9×
Confidence
Moderate
Proponents of California secession have repeatedly failed to gather enough signatures for previous ballot attempts and recently withdrew a 2028 initiative filing.
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.