Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?
Price history — Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES26¢ (26%)
NO74¢ (74%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 25.8M contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2028-07-01
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
NO at 74¢ · pays 1.4×
Price gap
Kalshi74¢
→OU's fair85¢
+11¢ underpriced · pays 1.4×
Confidence
Low
The probability of three or more extreme macroeconomic tail risk events occurring simultaneously before July 2028 remains historically low despite current market volatility.
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.