Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?
Price history — Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES2¢ (2%)
NO98¢ (98%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 54.6K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2026-10-20
Kalshi · Economics
OU's Pick
YES at 2¢ · pays 50×
Price gap
Kalshi2¢
→OU's fair5¢
+3¢ underpriced · pays 50×
Confidence
High
CBO and Treasury projections for fiscal year 2026 estimate a deficit of approximately 6 percent of GDP based on current spending and revenue trends.
High conviction
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.