Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?
Price history — Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES1¢ (1%)
NO99¢ (99%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 54.2K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-10-20
Kalshi · Economics
OU's Pick
YES at 1¢ · pays 100×
Price gap
Kalshi1¢
→OU's fair5¢
+4¢ underpriced · pays 100×
Confidence
High
The CBO and OMB both project the 2026 federal deficit to remain well above the five percent threshold at approximately five point eight percent of GDP.
High conviction
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.