Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
Price history — Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES6¢ (6%)
NO94¢ (94%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 179K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-01-01
Kalshi · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
NO at 94¢ · pays 1.1×
Price gap
Kalshi94¢
→OU's fair99¢
+5¢ underpriced · pays 1.1×
Confidence
Moderate
The USGS reports only one earthquake above magnitude 5.5 in California year-to-date and historical data indicates magnitude 8 events occur only once every few centuries.
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.