Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
Price history — Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES12¢ (12%)
NO88¢ (88%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 6.8K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2028-12-31
Kalshi · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
NO at 88¢ · pays 1.1×
Price gap
Kalshi88¢
→OU's fair99¢
+11¢ underpriced · pays 1.1×
Confidence
High
The UCERF3 forecast estimates the probability of a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in California at approximately 4.7 percent over a thirty year period.
High conviction
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.