OVER / UNDER
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★ KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★ KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★ KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★ KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★ KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

Price history — Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

69¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Tue 5/19Wed 5/20Thu 5/21Fri 5/22Sat 5/23Sun 5/24TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES31¢ (31%)
NO69¢ (69%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 20K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2035-12-31
Kalshi · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
NO at 69¢ · pays 1.4×
Price gap
Kalshi69¢
→
OU's fair89¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 1.4×
Confidence
Moderate

The UCERF3 long-term forecast estimates a low probability for a magnitude 8.0 earthquake in California over a thirty year period.

Wide edge+20¢
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.