Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
Price history — Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES66¢ (66%)
NO34¢ (34%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 24.7K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2030-01-01
Kalshi · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
NO at 34¢ · pays 2.9×
Price gap
Kalshi34¢
→OU's fair85¢
+51¢ underpriced · pays 2.9×
Confidence
Moderate
Historical data shows that magnitude 8.0 earthquakes in Japan are rare events with long return periods despite the high frequency of smaller seismic activities.
Wide edge+51¢
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.