How strong of an earthquake will occur in Jun 2026? Odds & Analysis

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How strong of an earthquake will occur in Jun 2026?

Price history — 6.8+

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

━ market YES▬ fair range

Market price

6.8+★ BEST81¢

6.9+73¢

7.0+65¢

7.1+59¢

7.2+46¢

7.3+37¢

7.4+31¢

7.5+23¢

Kalshi • Volume: 5.8K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2026-07-01 (27d)

Kalshi · Climate and Weather

OU's Pick

YES · 6.8+

at 81¢

Price gap

Kalshi81¢

→

OU's fair61¢

−20¢ overpriced · pays 1.2×

Confidence

Moderate

Historical USGS data shows an average of fifteen earthquakes of magnitude seven or higher annually which implies a significant monthly probability for the lowest threshold.

Wide edge+20¢

View on Kalshi↗

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.