OVER / UNDER
KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★ KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★ KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★ KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★ KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★ KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30 ★ KALSHI ★ MULTI ★

US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026

Price history — Above 5%

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

87¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Sat 5/30Sun 5/31Mon 6/1Tue 6/2Wed 6/3TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Above 5%★ BEST87¢
Above 7.5%80¢
Above 10%15¢
Above 12.5%5¢
Above 15%2¢
Kalshi • Volume: 15.9K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2026-07-30
Kalshi · Economics
OU's Pick
YES · Above 5%
at 87¢
Price gap
Kalshi87¢
→
OU's fair85¢
−2¢ overpriced · pays 1.1×
Confidence
Moderate

The Yale Budget Lab reports the actual average effective tariff rate reached 10.6 percent in January 2026 following new trade measures.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.