When will El Niño conditions be declared present?
Price history — Before Jan 1, 2027
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
94¢
89¢
86¢
79¢
50¢
Kalshi • Volume: 1.4K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2027-01-14
Kalshi · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
YES · Before Jan 1, 2027
at 94¢
Price gap
Kalshi94¢
→OU's fair85¢
−9¢ overpriced · pays 1.1×
Confidence
Moderate
The World Meteorological Organization and National Weather Service both project a high likelihood of El Nio conditions developing and persisting throughout the second half of 2026.
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.