Will at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota?
Price history — Will at least 5 of the following 6 Republican candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: Ken Paxton in Texas, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Barry Moore in Alabama, Mike Collins in Georgia, Andy Barr in Kentucky, and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota?
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES86¢ (86%)
NO14¢ (14%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 32.3K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
NO at 14¢ · pays 7.1×
Price gap
Kalshi14¢
→OU's fair35¢
+21¢ underpriced · pays 7.1×
Confidence
Low
Most of the named candidates are established incumbents or high-profile figures with strong regional support within the Republican party for the 2026 cycle.
Wide edge+21¢
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.