Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Price history — Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES31¢ (31%)
NO69¢ (69%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 134.5K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-01-01
Kalshi · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
NO at 69¢ · pays 1.5×
Price gap
Kalshi69¢
→OU's fair74¢
+5¢ underpriced · pays 1.5×
Confidence
Moderate
Climate scientists estimate a moderate probability for record heat in 2026 while noting a higher likelihood that it will rank as the second warmest year behind 2024.
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.