Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Price history — Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES32¢ (32%)
NO68¢ (68%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 127.4K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-01-01
Kalshi · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
YES at 32¢ · pays 3.1×
Price gap
Kalshi32¢
→OU's fair45¢
+13¢ underpriced · pays 3.1×
Confidence
Moderate
The ECCC forecast indicates 2026 will be among the four hottest years on record but does not guarantee it will surpass the record set in 2024 or 2025.
Wide edge+13¢
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.