Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Price history — Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES32¢ (32%)
NO68¢ (68%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 8.5K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2027-01-01
Kalshi · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
YES at 32¢ · pays 3.1×
Price gap
Kalshi32¢
→OU's fair35¢
+3¢ underpriced · pays 3.1×
Confidence
Moderate
Climate scientists estimate a moderate chance for 2026 to set a record while noting a higher likelihood that the five-year average will exceed critical warming thresholds.
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.