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2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Price history — Republicans win

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

14¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Tue 5/19Wed 5/20Thu 5/21Fri 5/22Sat 5/23Sun 5/24TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Democrats, 8 to 10%21¢
Democrats, 6 to 8%14¢
Democrats, 10 to 12%14¢
Republicans win★ BEST14¢
Democrats, 4 to 6%12¢
Democrats, 12 to 14%6¢
Democrats, 2 to 4%4¢
Democrats, 16% and above3¢
Democrats, 14 to 16%2¢
Democrats, 0 to 2%2¢
Kalshi • Volume: 330.1K contracts • Updated 56m agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Politics
OU's Pick
YES · Republicans win
at 14¢
Price gap
Kalshi14¢
→
OU's fair14¢
Confidence
Low

Midterm elections historically favor the party out of power and Republicans currently trail in fundraising according to FEC filings.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.