How many House Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?
Price history — 2
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
17¢
16¢
16¢
15¢
11¢
3¢
Kalshi • Volume: 42.1K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · 2
at 3¢
Price gap
Kalshi3¢
→OU's fair3¢
Confidence
Low
Historical primary loss rates for incumbents typically cluster in the low single digits and current 2026 filings show high fundraising for top Democratic targets.
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.