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How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

Price history — 1

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

3¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Tue 5/19Wed 5/20Thu 5/21Fri 5/22Sat 5/23Sun 5/24TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
286¢
1★ BEST3¢
4 or more3¢
32¢
Kalshi • Volume: 338.3K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · 1
at 3¢
Price gap
Kalshi3¢
→
OU's fair3¢
Confidence
Low

Incumbent Senate Republicans rarely lose primaries and historical data shows that typically only one or zero incumbents are defeated by primary challengers in a given cycle.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.