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Arizona's 4th District margin of victory

Price history — Democrats, 4+ pts

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

88¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Fri 5/29Sat 5/30Sun 5/31Mon 6/1Tue 6/2Wed 6/3TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Democrats, 4+ pts★ BEST88¢
Democrats, 7+ pts78¢
Democrats, 10+ pts68¢
Democrats, 13+ pts57¢
Democrats, 16+ pts37¢
Democrats, 19+ pts30¢
Democrats, 22+ pts24¢
Democrats, 25+ pts18¢
Democrats, 28+ pts8¢
Kalshi • Volume: 11.5K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Democrats, 4+ pts
at 88¢
Price gap
Kalshi88¢
→
OU's fair88¢
Confidence
Low

Arizona's 4th District is a strongly Democratic-leaning seat that Greg Stanton won by double digits in recent cycles.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.