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Hawaii's 2nd District margin of victory

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

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Market price
Democrats, 20+ pts84¢
Democrats, 23+ pts75¢
Democrats, 26+ pts65¢
Democrats, 29+ pts56¢
Democrats, 32+ pts★ BEST51¢
Democrats, 35+ pts37¢
Democrats, 38+ pts27¢
Democrats, 41+ pts17¢
Democrats, 44+ pts7¢
Kalshi • Volume: 1.7K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Democrats, 32+ pts
at 51¢
Price gap
Kalshi51¢
→
OU's fair51¢
Confidence
Low

Hawaii's 2nd District is a safe Democratic seat where the incumbent Jill Tokuda won by over thirty-five points in the previous election cycle.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.