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Indiana's 4th District margin of victory

Price history — Republicans, 13+ pts

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

88¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Fri 5/29Sat 5/30Sun 5/31Mon 6/1Tue 6/2Wed 6/3TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Republicans, 13+ pts★ BEST88¢
Republicans, 16+ pts80¢
Republicans, 19+ pts73¢
Republicans, 22+ pts64¢
Republicans, 25+ pts55¢
Republicans, 28+ pts47¢
Republicans, 31+ pts34¢
Republicans, 34+ pts22¢
Republicans, 37+ pts10¢
Kalshi • Volume: 890 contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Republicans, 13+ pts
at 88¢
Price gap
Kalshi88¢
→
OU's fair85¢
−3¢ overpriced · pays 1.1×
Confidence
Moderate

Jim Baird won the 2024 election in this district by over thirty percentage points and current market data indicates a ninety-one percent chance of a Republican victory in 2026.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.