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Kentucky's 4th District margin of victory

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

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Market price
Republicans, 18+ pts★ BEST80¢
Republicans, 21+ pts71¢
Republicans, 24+ pts61¢
Republicans, 27+ pts51¢
Republicans, 30+ pts42¢
Republicans, 33+ pts33¢
Republicans, 36+ pts24¢
Republicans, 39+ pts15¢
Republicans, 42+ pts12¢
Kalshi • Volume: 5.5K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Republicans, 18+ pts
at 80¢
Price gap
Kalshi80¢
→
OU's fair85¢
+5¢ underpriced · pays 1.3×
Confidence
Moderate

Thomas Massie won this district by over thirty points in previous cycles and the new Republican nominee Ed Gallrein maintains strong party support in this safe seat.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.