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Michigan's 12th District margin of victory

Price history — Democrats, 52+ pts

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

30¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Fri 5/29Sat 5/30Sun 5/31Mon 6/1Tue 6/2Wed 6/3TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Democrats, 34+ pts92¢
Democrats, 37+ pts81¢
Democrats, 40+ pts71¢
Democrats, 43+ pts61¢
Democrats, 46+ pts51¢
Democrats, 49+ pts40¢
Democrats, 52+ pts★ BEST30¢
Democrats, 55+ pts20¢
Democrats, 58+ pts10¢
Kalshi • Volume: 2.4K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Democrats, 52+ pts
at 30¢
Price gap
Kalshi30¢
→
OU's fair30¢
Confidence
Low

Rashida Tlaib won by approximately 48 points in 2022 and 2024 which suggests a 52 point margin is an aggressive threshold requiring a significant shift in turnout.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.