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New Mexico's 2nd District margin of victory

Price history — Democrats, 1+ pts

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

75¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Fri 5/29Sat 5/30Sun 5/31Mon 6/1Tue 6/2Wed 6/3TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Democrats, 1+ pts★ BEST75¢
Democrats, 4+ pts64¢
Democrats, 7+ pts52¢
Democrats, 10+ pts40¢
Democrats, 13+ pts28¢
Democrats, 16+ pts25¢
Democrats, 19+ pts20¢
Democrats, 22+ pts14¢
Democrats, 25+ pts8¢
Kalshi • Volume: 6.4K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Democrats, 1+ pts
at 75¢
Price gap
Kalshi75¢
→
OU's fair75¢
Confidence
Low

Incumbent Gabe Vasquez won this competitive district in 2022 and 2024 but the narrow historical margins suggest a single digit victory is the most probable outcome.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.