Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 2nd District House election be at least 2 percentage points?
Price history — Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 2nd District House election be at least 2 percentage points?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES16¢ (16%)
NO84¢ (84%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 592 contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES at 16¢ · pays 6.3×
Price gap
Kalshi16¢
→OU's fair35¢
+19¢ underpriced · pays 6.3×
Confidence
Low
New York's 2nd District is a Republican-leaning seat held by Andrew Garbarino and Democrats have not historically achieved a two point margin in recent cycles.
Wide edge+19¢
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.