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New York's 21st District margin of victory

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

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Market price
Republicans, 3+ pts★ BEST70¢
Republicans, 6+ pts60¢
Republicans, 9+ pts51¢
Republicans, 12+ pts42¢
Republicans, 15+ pts33¢
Republicans, 18+ pts24¢
Republicans, 21+ pts15¢
Republicans, 24+ pts6¢
Kalshi • Volume: 1.2K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Republicans, 3+ pts
at 70¢
Price gap
Kalshi70¢
→
OU's fair89¢
+19¢ underpriced · pays 1.4×
Confidence
Moderate

Incumbent Elise Stefanik won her previous election in this district by nearly thirty percentage points and the district remains a Republican stronghold.

Wide edge+19¢
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.