OVER / UNDER
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Pennsylvania's 4th District margin of victory

Price history — Democrats, 12+ pts

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

83¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Fri 5/29Sat 5/30Sun 5/31Mon 6/1Tue 6/2Wed 6/3TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Democrats, 12+ pts★ BEST83¢
Democrats, 15+ pts73¢
Democrats, 18+ pts64¢
Democrats, 21+ pts54¢
Democrats, 24+ pts44¢
Democrats, 27+ pts35¢
Democrats, 30+ pts25¢
Democrats, 33+ pts16¢
Democrats, 36+ pts6¢
Kalshi • Volume: 1.4K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Democrats, 12+ pts
at 83¢
Price gap
Kalshi83¢
→
OU's fair82¢
−1¢ overpriced · pays 1.2×
Confidence
Moderate

Incumbent Madeleine Dean won the 2024 election by over 16 points and the district remains a solid Democratic stronghold according to recent primary guides.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.