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Texas Senate margin of victory

Price history — Ken Paxton, 1+ pts

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

59¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Fri 5/29Sat 5/30Sun 5/31Mon 6/1Tue 6/2Wed 6/3TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Ken Paxton, 1+ pts★ BEST59¢
Ken Paxton, 3+ pts56¢
Ken Paxton, 5+ pts35¢
Ken Paxton, 7+ pts23¢
Ken Paxton, 9+ pts17¢
Ken Paxton, 11+ pts13¢
Ken Paxton, 13+ pts8¢
Kalshi • Volume: 36.2K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-11-03
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Ken Paxton, 1+ pts
at 59¢
Price gap
Kalshi59¢
→
OU's fair78¢
+19¢ underpriced · pays 1.7×
Confidence
Moderate

Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination after defeating incumbent John Cornyn in the May 2026 primary runoff and maintains a significant fundraising advantage over Democrats.

Wide edge+19¢
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.