When will the next US recession start?
Price history — Q1 2026
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
2¢
1¢
0¢
0¢
0¢
0¢
Kalshi • Volume: 499.7K contracts • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Kalshi · Economics
OU's Pick
YES · Q1 2026
at 1¢
Price gap
Kalshi1¢
→OU's fair21¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 167×
Confidence
Moderate
Current FRED data from May 2026 shows a positive 10Y-2Y spread and low unemployment which indicates that no recession began in 2024 or 2025.
Wide edge+20¢
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.