Will U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY in any quarter for 2026 be above 3%?
Price history — Will U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY in any quarter for 2026 be above 3%?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES46¢ (46%)
NO54¢ (54%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 51.4K contracts • Updated 30m agoCloses: 2027-03-04
Kalshi · Economics
OU's Pick
NO at 54¢ · pays 1.9×
Price gap
Kalshi54¢
→OU's fair75¢
+21¢ underpriced · pays 1.9×
Confidence
Moderate
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported first quarter 2026 nonfarm productivity growth at a low rate of 0.8 percent which is significantly below the 3 percent threshold.
Wide edge+21¢
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