Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?
Price history — Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES7¢ (7%)
NO93¢ (93%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 38.2K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2030-01-01
Kalshi · Health
OU's Pick
YES at 7¢ · pays 14×
Price gap
Kalshi7¢
→OU's fair10¢
+3¢ underpriced · pays 14×
Confidence
Low
Wild poliovirus 1 remains endemic in a few regions so a zero-case year before 2030 is plausible but not assured.
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.