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Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

Price history — Karen Bass, 0-4%

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

1¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Fri 5/29Sat 5/30Sun 5/31Mon 6/1Tue 6/2Wed 6/3TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Karen Bass, 8-12%62¢
Karen Bass, 4-8%33¢
Karen Bass, 0-4%★ BEST1¢
Karen Bass, 12-16%1¢
Nithya Raman, 8-12%0¢
Nithya Raman, 12-16%0¢
Karen Bass, ≥20%0¢
Nithya Raman, 0-4%0¢
Spencer Pratt wins0¢
Nithya Raman, 16-20%0¢
Karen Bass, 16-20%0¢
Nithya Raman, 4-8%0¢
Nithya Raman, ≥20%0¢
Kalshi • Volume: 342.6K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-04-28
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Karen Bass, 0-4%
at 1¢
Price gap
Kalshi1¢
→
OU's fair24¢
+23¢ underpriced · pays 100×
Confidence
Moderate

Recent polling from the LA Times indicates a very tight three-way race with Karen Bass leading Nithya Raman by only one percentage point.

Wide edge+23¢
High volume76k contracts
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.