Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
Price history — Before Jan 20, 2029
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
16¢
2¢
Kalshi • Volume: 27.9K contracts • Updated 53m agoCloses: 2029-01-20
Kalshi · Politics
OU's Pick
YES · Before Jan 20, 2029
at 16¢
Price gap
Kalshi16¢
→OU's fair21¢
+5¢ underpriced · pays 6.3×
Confidence
Low
Formal recognition of the Republic of China or Somaliland would represent a radical departure from long-standing United States diplomatic policy and the One China framework.
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.