Will there be a recession in 2026?
Price history — Will there be a recession in 2026?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES16¢ (16%)
NO84¢ (84%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 2.2M contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-01-31
Kalshi · Economics
OU's Pick
YES at 16¢ · pays 6.3×
Price gap
Kalshi16¢
→OU's fair22¢
+6¢ underpriced · pays 6.3×
Confidence
Moderate
Real GDP growth remains positive at two percent and the NBER recession indicator is at zero as of April 2026 according to Federal Reserve data.
High volume13k contracts
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.