Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator trigger in 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES15¢ (15%)
NO85¢ (85%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 1.4K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-01-08
Kalshi · Economics
OU's Pick
YES at 15¢ · pays 6.7×
Price gap
Kalshi15¢
→OU's fair34¢
+19¢ underpriced · pays 6.7×
Confidence
Moderate
The current unemployment rate remains stable and the Sahm indicator has not triggered as of the latest April 2026 data.
Wide edge+19¢
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.