OVER / UNDER
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What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

Price history — Between 20% and 29.99%

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

18¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Tue 5/19Wed 5/20Thu 5/21Fri 5/22Sat 5/23Sun 5/24TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Between 10% and 19.99%52¢
Below 10%21¢
Between 20% and 29.99%★ BEST18¢
Between 30% and 39.99%3¢
Between 50% and 60%0¢
Above 60%0¢
Between 40% and 49.99%0¢
Kalshi • Volume: 95.6K contracts • Updated 2h agoCloses: 2026-07-01
Kalshi · Politics
OU's Pick
YES · Between 20% and 29.99%
at 18¢
Price gap
Kalshi18¢
→
OU's fair43¢
+25¢ underpriced · pays 5.6×
Confidence
Moderate

The Budget Lab report from April 2026 indicates that effective tariff rates are projected to settle around 8.2 percent after the expiration of specific Section 122 measures.

Wide edge+25¢
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.