US trade deficit for 2026? Odds & Analysis

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US trade deficit for 2026?

Price history — Above 170‎ billion

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

━ market YES▬ fair range

Market price

Above 170‎ billion★ BEST89¢

45‎ billion to 54.9‎ billion0¢

85‎ billion to 94.9‎ billion0¢

119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion0¢

55‎ billion to 64.9‎ billion0¢

120‎ billion to 139.9‎ billion0¢

65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion0¢

Below 45‎ billion0¢

95‎ billion to 104.9‎ billion0¢

75‎ billion to 84.9‎ billion0¢

105‎ billion to 119.5‎ billion0¢

140‎ billion to 170‎ billion0¢

Kalshi • Volume: 11.6K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2027-02-28

Kalshi · Economics

OU's Pick

YES · Above 170‎ billion

at 89¢

Price gap

Kalshi89¢

→

OU's fair95¢

+6¢ underpriced · pays 1.1×

Confidence

Moderate

The U.S. trade deficit for the first quarter of 2026 alone has already reached approximately 178 billion dollars based on monthly data from FRED and Trading Economics.

View on Kalshi↗

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.