Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?
Price history — Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES16¢ (16%)
NO84¢ (84%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 156.5K contracts • Updated 30m agoCloses: 2027-12-31
Kalshi · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 84¢ · pays 1.2×
Price gap
Kalshi84¢
→OU's fair88¢
+4¢ underpriced · pays 1.2×
Confidence
Moderate
Current unemployment is at 4.3 percent and Democrats do not yet control the House of Representatives which makes the required four-part conjunction unlikely to resolve.
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.