How many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?
Price history — 3
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
16¢
15¢
13¢
11¢
8¢
8¢
8¢
8¢
0¢
Kalshi • Volume: 6.5K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2026-09-16
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · 3
at 15¢
Price gap
Kalshi15¢
→OU's fair17¢
+2¢ underpriced · pays 6.7×
Confidence
Low
Historical data from 2022 and early 2024 cycles suggests a small but consistent number of Trump-endorsed candidates lose in competitive primary fields.
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.