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Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Price history — Ken Paxton, 0-5%

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

10¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Tue 5/19Wed 5/20Thu 5/21Fri 5/22Sat 5/23Sun 5/24TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Ken Paxton, 10-15%31¢
Ken Paxton, 5-10%23¢
Ken Paxton, 15-20%19¢
Ken Paxton, 20%+12¢
Ken Paxton, 0-5%★ BEST10¢
John Cornyn, 0-5%3¢
John Cornyn, 5-10%0¢
John Cornyn, 10-15%0¢
John Cornyn, 15-20%0¢
John Cornyn, 20%+0¢
Kalshi • Volume: 1.2M contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2027-05-26
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Ken Paxton, 0-5%
at 10¢
Price gap
Kalshi10¢
→
OU's fair30¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 10×
Confidence
Moderate

Recent polling from the University of Houston shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by a narrow three point margin in the primary runoff.

Wide edge+20¢
High volume235k contracts
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.