Unemployment in July

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Unemployment in July

Price history — Above 4.1%

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

━ market YES▬ fair range

Market price

Above 4.1%★ BEST50¢

Above 4.2%20¢

Above 4.3%5¢

Above 4.7%0¢

Above 4.6%0¢

Above 3.7%0¢

Above 3.8%0¢

Above 4.0%0¢

Above 4.9%0¢

Above 3.9%0¢

Above 4.4%0¢

Above 4.5%0¢

Above 5.0%0¢

Above 4.8%0¢

Kalshi • Volume: 1.2K contracts • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-08-07

Kalshi · Economics

OU's Pick

YES · Above 4.1%

at 50¢

Price gap

Kalshi50¢

→

OU's fair70¢

+20¢ underpriced · pays 2.0×

Confidence

Moderate

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent in May 2026 and has remained above 4.3 percent since July 2025.

Wide edge+20¢

View on Kalshi↗

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.