How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Price history — Above 5%
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
26¢
10¢
4¢
1¢
1¢
1¢
1¢
0¢
0¢
0¢
Kalshi • Volume: 639K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2027-01-08
Kalshi · Economics
OU's Pick
YES · Above 5%
at 26¢
Price gap
Kalshi26¢
→OU's fair18¢
−8¢ overpriced · pays 3.8×
Confidence
Moderate
Current unemployment is at 4.3 percent and recent payroll growth remains positive according to the latest FRED data from April 2026.
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.